Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures: 2017 vs. 2025 – A Real Temperature Comparison

Introduction

Warm sea surface temperatures (SSTs) provide the fuel for hurricanes. By comparing actual SST values from 2017 and 2025 in the Atlantic’s Main Development Region (MDR), we can better understand how this year’s hurricane season might compare to the intense activity seen in 2017.

What Is the Main Development Region (MDR)?

  • The MDR spans from 10°N to 20°N latitude and 20°W to 85°W longitude in the tropical Atlantic.
  • This region is closely monitored because it is where many major hurricanes form and strengthen.

Actual SSTs in 2017

In the peak months of the 2017 hurricane season (August–September), sea surface temperatures in the MDR reached exceptionally warm levels:

  • Average SST: ~26.9°C
  • This unusually high warmth was a key factor in the development of multiple major hurricanes including Harvey, Irma, and Maria.

Actual SSTs in 2025

As of May 2025, the SSTs in the MDR are cooler compared to 2017. Observations show a more balanced pattern:

  • Western MDR SST: ~27.0°C (slightly above normal)
  • Eastern MDR SST: ~26.0°C (slightly below normal)
  • Average MDR SST in 2025 (so far): ~26.5°C

Direct Temperature Comparison

Year Actual MDR SST Difference from 2025
2017 ~26.9°C +0.4°C warmer
2025 ~26.5°C -0.4°C cooler

What Does This Mean for Hurricane Season?

While a difference of 0.4°C may seem small, it is enough to affect storm strength and formation. Warmer waters in 2017 provided abundant fuel for intense hurricanes. In contrast, the slightly cooler waters in 2025 may limit the development of stronger storms, at least early in the season.

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